Al Qaeda decimated but not obliterated

Doug Mills/AP

As rescue efforts continue in the rubble of the World Trade Center in New York, President Bush stands with firefighter Bob Beckwith on a burnt fire truck in front of the World Trade Center during a tour of the devastation, Friday, Sept. 14, 2001.

WASHINGTON — It was the “bullhorn moment” that launched the War on Terror.

Amid the ruins of the World Trade Center, then-President George W. Bush draped his left arm around Firefighter Bob Beckwith while holding a bullhorn with his right.

AP

Osama Bin Laden: Dead

“I can hear you!” Bush told the first responders working at Ground Zero, three days after 9/11. “The rest of the world hears you! And the people — and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon.”

Last week, Al Qaeda acknowledged that it once again had heard from the U.S. in just the way that Bush, and, later, President Obama, have wanted.

FBI/AFP/Getty Images

Abu Anas Al-Liby: Captured

The terror network confirmed a U.S. drone strike claimed another top terrorist — Saudi Said al-Shahri, the co-founder of Al Qaeda’s deadly Arabian affiliate.

Ten of the 14 terrorists in the original rogues gallery of the FBI’s most wanted terrorists are off the battlefield.

HO/AP

Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani: Captured

Eight have been killed, including former leader Osama Bin Laden, and two are locked up: 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and 1998 African embassy bombing conspirator Ahmed Ghailani.

The group’s core leadership is “significantly degraded,” the director of National Counterterrorism, Matthew Olsen, said at a conference last week in Aspen, Colo. “The group is really struggling to survive, to recruit, train and operate.”

FBI

Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah: Captured

The highest-profile member of Bin Laden’s inner circle remains. Successor Ayman al Zawahiri, a cantankerous Egyptian physician, regularly taunts the U.S. and Israel with audio messages posted to jihadist websites.

There is speculation Zawahiri is somewhere in Pakistan. Thomas Joscelyn, a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, says, “That’s certainly possible, but there’s no way to say.”

AP

Mohammed Atef: Dead

Bruce Hoffman, a former CIA official who is a professor at Georgetown University, believes Zawahiri may be hiding in a populated area, just as Bin Laden did.

Drones, which have proven so effective elsewhere in Pakistan, are “problematic to use in built-up urban areas,” Hoffman said.

FBI

Fazul Abdullah Mohammed: Dead

Further, Joscelyn said, the high risk and local political consequences of the Navy SEAL raid that killed Bin Laden make a similar strike targeting Zawahiri less likely even if he were located.

With seasoned terror leaders now extremely cautious about using cell phones and other forms of electronic communication that can be tracked, the search for Al Qaeda’s remaining leaders relies heavily on human intelligence.

HO/REUTERS

Abdul Rahman Yasin: Captured

In the hunt for Zawahiri, the U.S. may be a victim of its own success.

“The trick is to catch someone who’s met with him, or someone who’s met with someone who’s met with him,” but the group is so decimated that many in the intelligence community believe “there aren’t that many people to target,” Joscelyn said.

FBI/EPA

Saif al-Adel: Captured

Some elements of Al Qaeda also might be hiding in Iran.

In letters found at his Abbottabad, Pakistan, compound, Bin Laden complained about Iran’s treatment of his subordinates and relatives who fled there from Afghanistan after 9/11. While the core of Al Qaeda has been decimated, officials maintain the U.S. cannot relax.

Khalid Sheik Mohammed: Captured

Al Qaeda has spawned regional franchises like Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which threatens the U.S., and affiliates like Al Shabaab and Boko Haram in Africa, which so far only wage terror in their regions.

At the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, ex-FBI and CIA counterterrorism official Phil Mudd said the U.S. must take heed if one of the upstart groups says it will attack America.

-/AFP/Getty Images

Ayman al-Zawahiri: At large

“I think that’s a fair question to ask the American people and the Congress: Is that significant enough to target?” Mudd said. “If the answer is ‘no,’ I’d say remember Afghanistan in the 1990s, because the answer (to Al Qaeda) was ‘no’ then — and we paid the price.”

jstraw@nydailynews.com